Velocity Suite Monthly ISO Summary – March 2017



Overall Summary
 

Overall Monthly Summary Statistics (click to enlarge)
* Not all generation reported; PJM and ERCOT only report wind generation until mid-month
** Average LMP represents all price nodes in ISO region regardless of node type
*** All prices denoted in $/MWh

 
In March, all ISOs except ERCOT saw total load outpace total reported generation, resulting in net imports. SPP and MISO had negative DA-RT LMP spreads of -$1.39 and -$0.14, respectively. The highest LMP spread of the month was in CAISO, where the average day-ahead price exceeded the average real-time price by $5.19. The highest reported total generation was in MISO, with over 52 TW. Low temperatures in the Northeast prompted relatively higher prices in the day-ahead market for NYISO and ISONE, however real-time effects were underwhelming in both regions, leading to a higher DA-RT spread.
 
Total Load Summary
 

Monthly Load Summary by ISO (click to enlarge)
 
In March, PJM saw the highest average load of 87 GW, with the next highest average load in MISO; approximately 15 GW lower than PJM. This matches the 87 GW average load in PJM in February and outpaces the 80 GW of load in March of last year, an 8.2% year-over-year (Y/Y) increase. Overall M/M and Y/Y statistics for all ISOs can be found below.
 

Average Load Statistics (click to enlarge)
 
All ISOs except CAISO saw Y/Y increases in average load for March. Most ISOs saw declines in March M/M when compared to February, which is to be expected given the higher temperatures in March vs. February throughout the US.
 
Total Price Summary
 

LMP Price Summary by ISO, Market and Peak Type (click to enlarge)
 
Average off-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in each ISO except PJM, where real-time LMP prices averaged $0.73 below the average day-ahead market LMP. The largest off-peak spread was observed in California ISO, where the RT5AVG real-time LMP underperformed the day-ahead market by 6.69 $/MWh.
 
Average on-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in each ISO except SPP, where the real-time LMP prices averaged $4.54 below the average day-ahead market LMP. The largest on-peak spread was also observed in California ISO, where the RT5AVG real-time LMP underperformed the day-ahead market by 3.69 $/MWh.
 
Overall, New England ISO saw the highest average LMPs (both day-ahead and real-time) in March, followed by NYISO. This makes sense when average temperatures in those areas are taken into consideration (see below table). As a winter-peaking system that relies mostly on natural gas, New England tends to experience higher LMPs in the winter. Colder average temperatures in winter ramp up demand, but underdeveloped natural gas infrastructure leads to supply-side constraints. In ISONE, temperature is the main driver of higher prices.
 

Monthly Weather Statistics (click to enlarge)
 
New England ISO saw a 22% decrease in the average temperature when compared to March of 2016, and the average temperature for both ISONE and NYISO remained the lowest among ISOs in March 2017.
 
Below is a visual representation of the average real-time zonal LMPs for the month of March in $/MWh. The highest zonal average was $42.26 in MISO, while the lowest was $6.41 in CAISO. However, it’s important to note that the lowest four prices in CAISO occurred on EIM nodes. Without the EIM, the lowest real-time LMP would have been $9.72 in SPP.
 

LMP Price Heat Map (click to enlarge)
 
Total Generation Summary
 

Monthly Generation by Fuel Type (click to enlarge)
 
The above chart shows reported total monthly generation by fuel type and ISO. PJM only publishes wind generation, and CAISO pools all renewables together. ERCOT generation is posted at a half-month lag for any fuel type with the exception of wind.
 
Total Transmission Summary
 

Transmission Summary (click to enlarge)
 
MISO saw the greatest number of distinct constraints in March with 160 real-time binding constraints. The most common constraint in MISO was binding during 3,394 5-minute intervals (approx. 283 hours) with an average shadow price of 166.60 $/MWh. The highest average shadow price was 3,500.00 $/MWh in ERCOT.
 
In March, PJM saw the greatest number of scheduled transmission outages begin with 1,031 outages. In total, 2,006 distinct outages occurred across all ISOs during March. Note that this is for all reported pieces of equipment including (but not limited to) transmission lines, tie-lines, circuit breakers and transformers.
 
All data and graphics represented in this report were queried and created on April 11, 2017 and all data is reflective of what was available as of that time. For information or questions on how to use tools within the Velocity Suite, or for assistance querying any of the data outlined above, please contact Velocity Support