NYISO Locational Marginal Pricing



What Happened to LMP Prices in NYISO Early this Month?

Author: EV Market-Ops Analyst

Summer is coming. The first hot temperatures of the year hit the east coast earlier this month, causing wholesale electricity prices in some areas to spike as high as $1000/MWh. Most notable was NYISO’s West zone, near Buffalo, where temperatures topped out over 80 degrees for four straight days between May 8th and May 11th. In the three weeks leading up to May 8th, the average on-peak temperature in the Buffalo area hovered around 53 degrees Fahrenheit. Below is an example of how clients can utilize Velocity Suite to build heat maps.

NYISO LMP and Weather Heat Map 5.11.15 HE15_v2 copy

This map displays LMPs and temperatures throughout the NYISO footprint on the afternoon of May 11th. The LMP data comes from the EV Market Ops product and the temperature data comes from the EV Weather Product. Heat maps are a useful way to visualize data.

To compare, during the same four-day timeframe last year, the Buffalo region saw only one day reach 80, and otherwise averaged 62 degrees Fahrenheit during on-peak hours.

Let’s consider load. Given the quick increase in temperatures, we would expect generators to have been unprepared for the increased demand of electricity. Was this the case? Take a look at the chart below.

Real-Time LMP vs. Load for 5.11.2015

The above chart indicates where actual load outpaced Day-Ahead and Three-Day-Ahead forecasted demand. It also shows WEST (ZONE A) real-time hourly LMPs over the course of the day.

The chart below details the specific binding constraint, and its corresponding shadow price, that contributed to the congestion seen in the west zone of NYISO on May 11th. The Velocity Suite allows users to chart binding constraints next to real-time LMP data.

Real-Time LMP vs. Binding Constraint for 5.11.2015

After seeing these price spikes, NYISO operators took three 115kv transmission lines out of service around the Packard_Sawyer binding constraint near the cities of Grand Island, Gardenville and Amherst. You can view this outage data in Velocity Suite under the EV Transmission module.

Once these lines were taken out around 11AM EST on the morning of May 12th, the Packard_Sawyer congestion was relieved, and in fact reversed the WEST (ZONE A) congestion, pushing it negative for periods of the day, as seen in the chart below.

Real-Time MCC for WEST (ZONE A) 5.11.15 - 5.12.15

During the time of the line outages, the West (ZONE A) congestion was negative for portions of the day on May 12th. The lines were put back in service just before midnight EST.

As the summer forges on, keep an eye on electricity prices around Buffalo, NY, especially when they experience consecutive hot days. Additionally, be on the lookout for any transmission line outages around Grand Island, Gardenville and Amherst, NY that could contribute to the relief of Packard_Sawyer congestion.

If you want to learn more about any of the different products used to make the above maps and charts, or anything else you see here, please feel free to Contact Velocity Support or if you want to learn more about ABB solutions including Velocity Suite, please visit this link: http://energymarketintel.com/.

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