European Reference Cases

Many European electricity markets – including Britain, France, Germany, Benelux, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Turkey – continue to undergo fundamental changes to their dynamics and structure, mainly driven by the push to reduce CO2 emissions.  Using its proven, proprietary fundamental model and database of European markets, ABB helps clients face some of the fundamental issues that will impact the markets over the coming years, such as the potential sidelining of traditional energy markets, the introduction of the Electricity Target Model to deliver a single energy market and the opportunities around flexible generating capacity.

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The ABB European Power Reference Case Reports provide detailed projections related to these key issues, based on more than 15 years of power sector analysis, data and forecasting by the ABB European team. The reports provide a comprehensive, integrated analysis of key European electricity markets using ABB’s Market Analytics product.  Market Analytics is a market-based, fundamental model of power, gas, coal and environmental markets, which provides both short and long term forecasts based on consistent economic assumptions.

This in depth analysis reveals some of the paradigm shifts and major issues facing future European power markets, for example, plant mix changes resulting from the impact of relatively high renewable volumes, changing market designs and energy policies, and demand growth.

The analysis is an in-depth, fundamental view, focused on providing a quantitative assessment of future market outcomes.  Reports provide country-specific assumptions and market shaping factors employed in developing a detailed electricity market forecast for each country; results and assumptions are provided in detailed spreadsheet form, with customizable format. The Reports also include detailed country-by-country analysis and scenario-based modelling results for our detailed 25 year forecast, including:

Price forecasts and spreads for power, gas and oil, covering energy markets and capacity mechanisms

  • Future plant mix, installed capacity, plant operation, revenues and costs, marginal plant analysis and reserve margin
  • Carbon emissions, prices and intensity
  • Demand forecast and interconnector capacity and flows
  • European energy and environmental policies

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