Velocity Suite Monthly ISO Summary – April 2017

Overall Summary

Overall Monthly Summary Statistics (click to enlarge)
* Not all generation reported, PJM and ERCOT only report wind generation until mid-month
** Average LMP represents all price nodes in ISO region regardless of node type
*** All prices denoted in $/MWh

In April, MISO, NYISO, ISO-NE, and PJM saw total load outpace total reported generation, resulting in net imports, while ERCOT, SPP, and CAISO experienced net exports. Only MISO, CAISO, and PJM had positive DA-RT LMP spreads. The highest LMP spread in the month was in PJM, where the average day-ahead price exceeded the average real-time price by $1.31. The highest reported total generation was in MISO, with over 42 GW. Low temperatures in the Northeast tend to prompt relatively higher prices in the day-ahead market for NYISO and ISO-NE, however real-time results were above the day-ahead market in both regions, leading to greater DA-RT spreads.
Total Load Summary

Monthly Load Summary by ISO (click to enlarge)
PJM average load fell to 76 GW from 87 GW in March. This slightly underperforms the 77 GW of average load seen in PJM in April of last year, a 1.2% year-over-year (Y/Y) decrease. Overall M/M and Y/Y load statistics for all ISOs can be found in the chart below.
The largest Y/Y discrepancy occurred in CAISO, where average load was almost 4% below the average load seen in April of 2016.

Average Load Statistics (click to enlarge)
Coastal ISOs experienced lower average load Y/Y, while Y/Y load figures for the central ISOs increased. Most ISOs saw declines in April M/M when compared to March, which is to be expected given the higher temperatures in April vs. March throughout the US.
Total Price Summary

LMP Price Summary by ISO, Market, and Peak Type (click to enlarge)
Average off-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in each ISO except CAISO, NYISO, and ISO-NE. The largest off-peak spread was observed in ISO-NE, where the average RTH real-time LMP outperformed the average day-ahead LMP by 2.71 $/MWh.
Average on-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in PJM and CAISO, where the real-time LMP prices averaged $1.72 and $0.32 below the average day-ahead market LMP, respectively. The largest on-peak spread was observed in ERCOT, where the RT5AVG real-time LMP outperformed the day-ahead market by 3.66 $/MWh.
Overall, NYISO saw the highest average day-ahead LMPs in April, while ISO-NE saw the highest average real-time LMPs.
ISO-NE saw an 11% decrease in the average temperature when compared to April of 2016, though the average temperature for both ISO-NE and NYISO remained the lowest among the ISOs in April 2017.
Below is a visual representation of the average real-time zonal LMPs for the month of April in $/MWh. The highest zonal average was $45.36 in MISO, while the lowest was $8.55 in CAISO. It’s important to note that the lowest two prices in CAISO occurred on EIM nodes (Puget Sound and PacifiCorp West). Without the EIM, the lowest real-time LMP would have been $10.50 in SPP.

LMP Price Heat Map (click to enlarge)
Total Generation Summary

Monthly Generation by Fuel Type as reported by the ISO (click to enlarge)
The above chart shows reported total monthly generation by fuel type and ISO. PJM only publishes wind generation*, and CAISO pools all renewables together. ERCOT generation is posted at a half-month lag for any fuel type with the exception wind.
Coal was the largest generating fuel in April in MISO. Total monthly generation in MISO was 42.4 GW. This compares to 45.6 GW in April of 2016, or a 7% decline Y/Y.
* PJM generation data is also published by the EIA in the EIA 930 report under PJM Interconnection which is visible in the Hourly Regional Generation by Fuel Type dataset.
Total Transmission Summary

Transmission Summary (click to enlarge)
MISO saw the greatest number of distinct constraints in April with 210 real-time binding constraints. The most common constraint in MISO was binding during 1,908 5-minute intervals (approx. 159 hours) with an average shadow price of 361.01 $/MWh. The highest average shadow price was 3,500.00 $/MWh in ERCOT.
PJM saw the greatest number of scheduled transmission outages begin with 377 outages. In total, 1,218 distinct outages occurred across all ISOs during April. Note that this is for all reported pieces of equipment including (but not limited to) transmission lines, tie-lines, circuit breakers, and transformers.
All data and graphics represented in this report were queried and created on May 10, 2017 and all data is reflective of what was available as of that time. For information or questions on how to use tools within the Velocity Suite, or for assistance querying any of the data outlined above, please contact Velocity Support.