Velocity Suite Monthly ISO Summary – December 2017

Overall Summary

Overall Monthly Summary Statistics (click to enlarge)
*Average LMP represents all price nodes in ISO region regardless of node type.
**All prices denoted in $/MWh.
In December, MISO, NYISO and ISO-NE saw total load outpace generation, resulting in net imports. Alternatively, generation outpaced load within PJM, ERCOT, SPP and CAISO, resulting in net exports. Negative DA-RT LMP spreads were observed in all ISOs except MISO and CAISO for December. The highest LMP spread of the month was in the ISO-NE, where the real-time price outpaced the average day-ahead price by $7.41. Highest reported total generation was in PJM, with over 73,860 GWh.
Total Load Summary

Monthly Load Summary by ISO (click to enlarge)
PJM saw the highest average hourly load of nearly 96 GW. This compares to 84 GW in November, an increase of 13.86% month-over-month (M/M), and 94 GW in December of last year, a 1.97% increase year-over-year (Y/Y). Overall M/M and Y/Y statistics for all ISOs can be found below.

Average Load Statistics (click to enlarge)
Total Price Summary

LMP Price Summary by ISO, Market, and Peak Type (click to enlarge)
CAISO, MISO and NYISO had higher average off-peak day-ahead LMP prices than real-time prices while ERCOT, ISO-NE, PJM and SPP experienced higher real-time prices than average off-peak day-ahead prices. The largest off-peak spread was observed in the ISO-NE, where the RT LMP outpaced the day-ahead LMP market by 8.48 $/MWh.
Average on-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in CAISO, MISO and PJM in December. The largest on-peak spread was observed in NYISO, where the real-time LMP price outpaced the day-ahead market by 7.47 $/MWh.
Overall, the highest LMPs (both on-peak and off-peak) were observed in CAISO. Varying temperatures throughout the year can contribute to volatility in LMP prices. Northeastern regions tend to see LMP spikes in the winter, when lower temperatures prohibit the transfer and production of natural gas; central and southern regions often see LMP spikes in the summer when blistering temperatures cause transmission lines to sag. Average temperature statistics and their year-over-year changes for December can be found below.
ISO-NE was the coldest among all ISOs in December 2017. The effects of the bomb cyclone are evident in this graphic as we see a 15.4% average temperature decrease in NYISO and a 14.2% decrease in ISO-NE’s average temperature for the month of December. CAISO and SPP were the only ISOs which experienced higher average temperatures this year compared to December of 2016.
Below is a visual representation of the average real-time zonal LMPs for the month of December in $/MWh. The highest ($80.61) and lowest ($16.62) zonal averages were in ISO-NE and MISO, respectively.

LMP Price Heat Map (click to enlarge)
Total Generation Summary

Monthly Generation by Fuel Type (click to enlarge)
The above chart shows reported total monthly generation by fuel type and ISO. Note: CAISO pools all renewables together; ERCOT generation is posted at a half-month lag for all fuel types except wind.
Total Transmission Summary

Transmission Summary (click to enlarge)
MISO saw the greatest number of distinct constraints in December with 164 real-time binding constraints. The most common constraint in MISO was binding during 1,919 5-minute intervals (approx. 160 hours) with an average shadow price of 260.74 $/MWh. The highest average shadow price was 5,000 $/MWh in ERCOT.
PJM saw the greatest number of scheduled transmission outages begin with 4599 outages. In total, 9,886 distinct outages occurred across all ISOs during December. (This is for all reported pieces of equipment including, but not limited to, transmission lines, tie-lines, circuit breakers and transformers.)
All data and graphics represented in this report were queried and created on January 9, 2018 and all data is reflective of what was available at that time. For information or questions on how to use tools within the Velocity Suite, or for assistance querying any of the data outlined above, please contact Velocity Support.