Velocity Suite Monthly ISO Summary – May 2017



Overall Summary
 

Overall Monthly Summary Statistics (click to enlarge)
*Not all generation reported, PJM and ERCOT only report wind generation until mid-month
**Average LMP represents all price nodes in ISO region regardless of node type
***All prices denoted in $/MWh

 
In May, ERCOT, SPP, and CAISO saw total load outpace total reported generation, resulting in net imports. ERCOT, ISO-NE, and PJM had negative DA-RT LMP spreads of -$1.91, -$0.50 and -$0.22 respectively. The highest LMP spread of the month was in CAISO, where the average day-ahead price exceeded the average real-time price by $3.82. The highest reported total generation was in MISO, with over 45 TW.
 
Total Load Summary
 

Monthly Load Summary by ISO (click to enlarge)
 
PJM saw the highest average load of 79 GW, 8 GW above MISO, the next highest performer, with ~71 GW. This compares to 77 GW average load in PJM in April, an increase of 2.7% month-over-month (M/M), and 79 GW in May of last year, a 0.4% year-over-year (Y/Y) decline. Overall M/M and Y/Y statistics for all ISOs can be found below.
 

Average Load Statistics (click to enlarge)
 
Only PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE experienced Y/Y decreases in average load for May. However, all ISOs saw rises in May M/M compared to April.
 
Total Price Summary
 

LMP Price Summary by ISO, Market, and Peak Type (click to enlarge)
 
Average off-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in each ISO in May. The largest off-peak spread was observed in CAISO, where the RT5AVG real-time LMP underperformed the day-ahead market by 5.17 $/MWh.
 
Average on-peak day-ahead LMP prices were lower than real-time in most ISOs in May; only CAISO, NYISO, and SPP experienced positive DA-RT spreads. The largest on-peak spread was observed in ERCOT, where the RT5AVG real-time LMP outperformed the day-ahead market by 3.23 $/MWh.
 
Overall, the highest LMPs (both on-peak and off-peak) were observed in PJM. Varying temperatures throughout the year can contribute to volatility in LMP prices. Northeastern regions tend to see LMP spikes in the winter, where lower temperatures prohibit the transfer and production of natural gas; central and southern regions often experience LMP spikes in the summer when blistering temperatures cause transmission lines to sag. Average temperature statistics and their year-over-year changes for May can be found below.
 
Despite a 4% decrease in the average temperature seen in May of 2016, the average temperature for ISO-NE remained the lowest among all ISOs.
 
Below is a visual representation of average real-time zonal LMPs for the month of May in $/MWh. The highest zonal average was $51.79 in MISO, while the lowest was $7.92 in CAISO. However, it’s important to note that the lowest price in CAISO occurred in the EIM. Without the EIM, the lowest real-time LMP would have been $8.81 in NYISO (ZONE D).
 

LMP Price Heat Map (click to enlarge)
 
Total Generation Summary
 

Monthly Generation by Fuel Type (click to enlarge)
 
The above chart shows reported total monthly generation by fuel type and ISO. PJM only publishes wind generation*, and CAISO pools all renewables together. ERCOT generation is posted at a half-month lag for any fuel type with the exception wind.
 
* PJM generation data is also published by the EIA in the EIA 930 report under PJM Interconnection which is visible in the Hourly Regional Generation by Fuel Type dataset.
 
Total Transmission Summary
 

Transmission Summary (click to enlarge)
 
MISO saw the greatest number of distinct constraints in March with 250 real-time binding constraints. The most common constraint in MISO was binding during 1,388 5-minute intervals (approx. 116 hours) with an average shadow price of 103.46 $/MWh. The highest average shadow price was 4,000.00 $/MWh in NYISO.
 
PJM saw the greatest number of scheduled transmission outages begin with 447 outages. In total, 1,251 distinct outages occurred across all ISOs during May. Note that this is for all reported pieces of equipment including (but not limited to) transmission lines, tie-lines, circuit breakers, and transformers.
 
All data and graphics represented in this report were queried and created on June 9, 2017 and all data is reflective of what was available at that time. For information or questions on how to use tools within the Velocity Suite, or for assistance querying any of the data outlined above, please contact Velocity Support.