Velocity Suite Monthly ISO Summary – September 2017

Overall Summary

Overall Monthly Summary Statistics (click to enlarge)
*Average LMP represents all price nodes in ISO region regardless of node type.
**All prices denoted in $/MWh.

In September, MISO, ISO-NE, CAISO and NYISO saw total load out pace generation, resulting in net imports. Positive DA-RT LMP spreads were observed in PJM, ERCOT, and SPP. The highest LMP spread of the month was in CAISO, where the average day-ahead price exceeded the average real-time price by $6.11. Highest reported total generation was in PJM, with over 64,889 GWh.
Total Load Summary

Monthly Load Summary by ISO (click to enlarge)
PJM saw the highest average hourly load of 86 GW. This compares to 95 GW in August, a decrease of 9.21% month-over-month (M/M), and 92 GW in September of last year, a 6.39% decrease year-over-year (Y/Y). Overall M/M and Y/Y statistics for all ISOs can be found below.

Average Load Statistics (click to enlarge)
Only CAISO experienced Y/Y increases in average load for September. All ISOs saw a decline in September M/M compared to August.
Total Price Summary

LMP Price Summary by ISO, Market, and Peak Type (click to enlarge)
Average off-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in CAISO, and ERCOT, while SPP, ISO-NE, NYISO, MISO, and PJM experienced negative DA-RT spreads. The largest off-peak spread was observed in CAISO, where the DA LMP outpaced the real-time LMP market by 4.76 $/MWh.
Average on-peak day-ahead LMP prices were higher than real-time in CAISO and ERCOT in September. The largest on-peak spread was observed in CAISO, where the RT5AVG real-time LMP underperformed the day-ahead market by 7.45 $/MWh.
Overall, the highest LMPs (both on-peak and off-peak) were observed in CAISO. Varying temperatures throughout the year can contribute to volatility in LMP prices. Northeastern regions tend to see LMP spikes in the winter, when lower temperatures prohibit the transfer and production of natural gas; central and southern regions often see LMP spikes in the summer when blistering temperatures cause transmission lines to sag. Average temperature statistics and their year-over-year changes for September can be found below.
NYISO was the coldest among all ISOs in September 2017. ERCOT still experienced the highest average temps, despite decreasing 0.6 degrees or 1.9% y/y from the 81.4 degrees seen in September 2016.
Below is a visual representation of the average real-time zonal LMPs for the month of September in $/MWh. The highest ($40.8) and lowest ($12.6) zonal averages were in CAISO and SPP, respectively.

LMP Price Heat Map (click to enlarge)
Total Generation Summary

Monthly Generation by Fuel Type (click to enlarge)
The above chart shows reported total monthly generation by fuel type and ISO. Note: CAISO pools all renewables together; ERCOT generation is posted at a half-month lag for all fuel types except wind.
Total Transmission Summary

Transmission Summary (click to enlarge)
MISO saw the greatest number of distinct constraints in September with 262 real-time binding constraints. The most common constraint in MISO was binding during 3,016 5-minute intervals (approx. 251 hours) with an average shadow price of 162.18 $/MWh. The highest average shadow price was 3,750 $/MWh in ERCOT.
PJM saw the greatest number of scheduled transmission outages begin with 5130 outages. In total, 10,932 distinct outages occurred across all ISOs during September. (This is for all reported pieces of equipment including, but not limited to, transmission lines, tie-lines, circuit breakers and transformers.)
All data and graphics represented in this report were queried and created on October 10, 2017 and all data is reflective of what was available at that time. For information or questions on how to use tools within the Velocity Suite, or for assistance querying any of the data outlined above, please contact Velocity Support.